Tuesday, January 17

More Bandit Graphs

Without much explanation (yet), here are some ngrams-style topic graphs I've made on my second topic analysis of the Qing Shilu. This time, I cleaned up a lot better - got rid of very short entries that were giving strange results, got rid of chapter headers - and got better results. This time round, I tried out 40, 50 and 60 topics. 50 gave the best results - started getting lots of garbage at 60 so I didn't try more topics.
First off, the topic model (as before) does a nice job separating rebellions (4 topics this time) from regular law and order issues (4 topics). Here the graph of the two composites:

Note that again law and order (solid line) is fairly consistent - lots of variation (some suppressed by the 12 month moving average), but at a low drone. On the other hand, rebellion (dashed line) is basically zero (plus a bit of noise related to the statistical nature of the model), except during major events - some minor rebellions in the late 18th and early 19th century, and the well-known crises of the mid-to-late 19th century.
In fact, this cleaned up model "wasted" fewer topics on noisy data and the preponderance of minor imperial rituals in the very short shilu entries. It had more topics to assign to usefully differentiating within the ideas of "rebellion" and "crime":

Note that the Taiping Rebellion has essentially received its own topic that is basically zero except during the rebellion (dotted line), and the rest of the rebellion entries have been split between three topics. Two are shown here - a general rebels topic (dashed line) that spikes with every rebellion, and a 19th century rebels topic, that only seems to pick up rebellions starting in the 1790s. I haven't figured out what this is describing yet.

Finally, there is a topic for northwestern rebellion, that spikes at the expected time. Check out how the topic model differentiates between the Western Campaigns during Yongzheng and Qianlong (dotted line, not included in the composites above), and the Northwestern rebellions in the late 18th century (solid line) despite the fact that there are similar terms used in both cases (bing 兵, zei 贼, jiao 剿, fan 番, various characters used to transliterate foreign words, etc.)


Finally, there are four topics that divvy out the general law-and-order issues. I have yet to figure out what all of these mean, but it is clear that there is one that is dominated by Qianlong's neuroses (how Kuhnian), a policing topic (all about capturing criminals) that is fairly consistent, a trials topic that seems to generally increase over the course of the dynasty, and one that tends to decrease:


Anyway, this is preliminary. The results are clearly better - less noisy,  more clearly divided - than my first model produced. But I haven't had a chance to read dozens of memorials yet to verify my suspicions.  Please comment - on the results, analysis and visuals. I'm playing with the black and white because I suspect it will do better in print. On the screen, which is clearer, that or color?:



Wednesday, December 7

The growing pains of a new rights regime

I have too much on my plate for this to be anything beyond a stray thought at the moment. I have been reading a lot on violence and unrest in historical China, on which a more complete post some time soon (I hope). In the meantime, it has me thinking quite a bit about the Occupy movement and the broader unrest of the past few decades.

Two relatively recent works coming out of the Tilly school have raised interesting questions on what we might call the early modern rights transition. Thomas Bouye's Manslaughter, Markets and Moral Economy and Ho-fung Hung's Protest With Chinese Characteristics are both attempts to make sense of the changing motivations for violence and mass protest in the mid-Qing Dynasty (18th century). Bouye splits these disputes into contractual - disputes caused by contract-based events like evictions and defaults - and non-contractual - disputes over things outside what is specified in contracts. Hung divides protests into state-engaging - seeking state assistance like famine relief - and state-resisting - avoiding state actions like tax collection. Both point to a shift, probably starting in the late Ming (late 16th/early 17th century), from a social and governmental regime founded on control over labor to one founded on control over capital (mainly land and silver). In other words, there was a shift in the most important sources of wealth and power, and both the state and society reacted by creating new means of control.

Prior to the shift, control of labor was relatively important. Labor was relatively scarce, and there was not enough liquid capital for capital-intensive techniques, or market-based control regimes. Because of this, gentry exerted their power through customary rights over bonded labor, and the state used corvee - mandated labor - as part of its tax regime. Control of land was important, but if it was not coupled with direct control over labor, it was ineffective.

The 16th and 17th centuries brought about two important shifts. First, population surged, decreasing the marginal value of labor. Second, an influx of silver decreased the frictional costs of market-based control mechanisms. Gentry began to focus more on exerting control of land, knowing that they could obtain labor on the market. The state commuted tax payments in kind (grain, textile) and in labor (corvee) to monetized payments (the so-called "Single Whip Reform"), confident in the transferability of capital. The result was the beginnings of the end of customary rights regimes with a dual focus on land and labor, and the transition to an early capitalist regime, where labor, produce, currency and land were all readily interchangeable - a regime in which control of land and currency began to trump control of land and labor. Increasingly, this control was marked contractually, rather than through customary rights.

This transition was slowed somewhat by the fall of the dynasty. Warfare, famine and epidemics reduced the population, increasing the marginal value of labor. Wartime markets were less efficient, and unrest made contracts hard to enforce. But once the Qing Dynasty was stabilized, it continued. The mid-Qing was marked by unrest and violence, demarcating the still-ragged edge of the contractual, capitalist rights regime. Initially, most unrest was directed toward resisting the new rights regime - advocating for "traditional" customary rights, resisting the new taxes, laws and contracts. Eventually, there was a transition to where unrest was largely directed toward hashing out rights within the new regime. Instead of resisting the idea of contractual labor, tenants advocated for more or better contractual rights. Instead of resisting state programs, people protests specifics of how they were implemented. Disputes were increasingly contained within the new rights regime rather than resisting its imposition and advocating for the more traditional formulation of rights.

It appears to me that we have gone through several transitions since then, from the industrial revolution's focus on light and then heavy industry, to the further capitalization of agriculture during the green revolution, to the shift from goods to services. And we are going through a similar transition now. With the rise of intellectual property and digitization, rights to traditional capital forms are changing. Capital markets have become hyper-fluid, and focus largely on profiting from the borders of outdated regulatory regimes that are now outpaced by the rate of transactions. Sectors like arts and entertainment, information technology, finance, education and services now dominate traditional productive sectors in durable and non-durable goods, let alone even more "traditional" sectors like agriculture and mining (see the chart at xkcd). Even in the "traditional" productive sectors, intellectual property has become more and more important. Agribusiness is increasingly about patenting drugs, genes and even species - bringing this most traditional of sectors into the information rights regime. Even all of these sectors put together are completely dominated by the market in derivatives. Rights and transactions in nearly pure information are replacing all the old forms of capital - land, labor, goods, services...even currency.

Through all of these innovations, most people and even the government is being left behind. In the Ming and Qing, tenants were lost until they learned to assert their rights within the new regime. The strength of the Qing at its height was in part through its embrace of the land-capital power base - taxes were denominated primarily in land, and collected in silver. It fell in part because it failed to transition to a power base in industrial capital, with the appropriate social and governmental controls.

The current unrest, at the popular level, is because individuals have not yet figured out how to assert their rights under the new regime. The way IP works now privileges giant corporations with massive legal teams. The negative outcomes of this system are felt from the web, to pharmaceuticals to agriculture and consumables, where bigger corporate entities have the advantage. Open source, creative commons and such concepts seem to be early attempts for consumers and more diffuse production groups to exert their rights under the intellectual property system. To this point, these attempts to reform within the system are most effective in the more abstract forms of information - IT and software. Because consumers are in less direct contact with producers of other goods - drugs, food, etc - it has been harder for them to recognize the links in those systems. So far, reform attempts have been largely confined to the outdated rights regime or to resistance to the new system.

Many governments are also failing, to varying degrees, because they have not adjusted their tax systems or their forms of sovereignty to account for these changes in rights regimes. Tax codes are still focused on income and corporate taxes. These made sense during the industrial period, when these were the most important factors producing profits. This is not how profits are produced today. Most people are more important as consumers than producers. Financial transactions are inadequately taxed, as are profits obtained through control of intellectual property. Media, the direct control of information, has become even more important for elections, and a combination of finance and media corporations are able to dominate these processes. Sovereignty is still theoretically defined around the individual, but it functions around the unit of information. Government ends up underfunded for critical programs, and elections are travesties of financial escalation and media domination.

Again, with the exception of a few key sectors, individuals have been unsuccessful in asserting their economic or political rights as the rights regime changes. I would argue that this is largely because resistance to the excesses of the new system are stuck in modes of resistance based in an outdated system. It is tempting to demand a return of old rights and responsibilities, but history shows that this mode of engagement will ultimately fail. If the 99% is to be recognized in the 21st century, we must advocate for ourselves within the new rights regime. This means we must continue to fight for open-source, copy-left protections - of both "traditional" goods and methods, and of new ones that are developed though a more diffuse community. We must develop awareness linking producers to consumers of goods whose chain of production is more obscure. We must convince our governments to tax the most profitable sectors of the economy, both to ensure the government remains solvent, and to put more controls on these sectors. Politically, the new rights regime strikes me as a bigger challenge. How can the diffuse masses assert control of political information against better-organized, centralized industry lobbing? How can individuals continue to assert sovereignty in a context where control of liquid capital and media is more important than social organization. For now, I will leave this question to others, because I am out of ideas.

But in short, we must recognize that individual voters, consumers and small-scale diffuse producers are being left behind by centralizing, aggrandizing control of information-capital. To resist this and reclaim power for ourselves, we must meet the new rights regime on its own terms.