Writing in the Margins

Some things that I wonder about:

-We are often disgusted by the sight of urban blight, functionally ugly construction, coal and oil smoke, rusting automobiles. It seems like we find old-but-not-yet-outdated technology as the prime example of the ugly and polluting aspects of our urban environment. Shiny new technology is exempt until it's not so new. More interestingly, truly old technology is exempt as well. We consider things like water mills, early machinery, wood stoves and the like quaint. But consider, there was a time when these were cutting-edge technology. There was also, therefore, a time when they were becoming increasingly marginalized technology, but had not yet dissapeared. Were they considered unsightly and polluting? Going further back, was there a time when log cabins were a shiny new technology and mud huts seemed a blight on the landscape? Or is this perspectieve a product of modernity?

-It seems to met that the greatest innovations, the ones the represent real leaps forward rather than incrimental steps, come from the margins of society more than the professional innovators. Apple computers present a very interesting perspective on this. When Steve Jobs and the Woz were putting together machines in their garrage, they were cutting edge, then when Mac's were at the height of their popularity, they ceased to be making much in the way of innovation and then, after nearly failing, they returned to the forefront of innovation. Another way to look at this is that highly chaotic times present the impetus for real novel ideas. The warring states, for example, was a relatively chaotic period in China; it is also when the most formative philosphies took root, including Daoism and Confusionism as well as the ultimately less sucessful Moism, Legalism and some others. This is, of course, all anecdotal; I could very easily be pulling out only the examples that support my thesis. Something worth exploring, although I wonder how that might be done....

-Under the assumption that margins are where the most interesting ideas come from, where are the best places to look for innovation? Here are some that I've been thinking about: the megaslums forming around major cities in the developing world (notably, these will soon hold the majority of the world population), the drug trade, areas struck hard by the AIDS epidemic, failed states, prisons. In some cases, there may be too many externalities, or the situation may be entirely too marginal. In other cases, the innovations may be a little or no practical use outside of the situation in which they arise, or may be destructive in nature. In particular, consdier that terrorism and the manipulation of the UN and the international community represent major innovations in managing conflicts across massive power differentials. Some other things we've heard a lot about, microfinance being a prime example, came out of megaslums. If I were a major investment agency, that is where I'd put a lot of focus.

-Increasingly, the indication seems to be that large groups of people are better at making solutions than elites. Even though those people may individually be idiots, in aggregate, they make better decisions than highly intelligent and educated elites. Maybe. Mom got me a book on this that I haven't had the chance to read yet. My observation: masses of people are better at voting on things indirectly or when there is a clear outcome. For example, buying things is essentially a vote. Another example might be American Idol: zombie Americans with nothing better to do than watch reality TV seem to do a pretty good job of choosing sucessful singers. Then again, this should almost be a truism, because the measure a a singer's sucess is preetty much based on how many peopel like them. But maybe what we need is more direct democracy. Why not run voting issues on TV or internet-based applets that have a panel of experts to help people see the different sides of the issue and then let them decide. One of the major disadvantages, that interested people are more likely to vote, doesn't nessisarily seem like such a disadvantage. Voting fraud might be, but then again, it already is.